京东|美网友问:如果中国的技术持续进步,美国将会发生什么?( 四 )



How the U.S. is impacted by China’s (almost inevitable) progress in technology will largely be driven by how well we are prepared to handle disruptive change on the home front.
美国如何受到中国(几乎不可避免)技术进步的影响 , 很大程度上将取决于我们准备好应对国内颠覆性变革的程度 。
If we learn how to handle change we will benefit from Chinese advancements in technology by trading the inevitable technology advancements that we will be making — or even straight-up assimilating those new ideas and techniques. If we are unable to handle change we run the risk of being isolated and left behind.
如果我们学会如何应对变化 , 我们将从中国的技术进步中受益 , 通过交易我们将取得的不可避免的技术进步——甚至直接吸收那些新的思想和技术 。 如果我们无法应对变化 , 我们就会面临被孤立和落后的风险 。
As the world continues its inexorable march into the future thinking with a zero-sum mentality becomes a bigger and bigger liability.
随着世界继续势不可挡地向未来前进 , 零和思维成为越来越大的负担 。
Finite vs. non-finite goods and services
有限商品和服务vs.非有限商品和服务
There are certain types of goods that are finite or limited by their very nature. Land is one example. Crude oil and most natural resources are another example. These types of goods can only be owned by one person or country at a time. They cannot be created magically out of thin air.
某些类型的商品是有限的 , 或因其本身的性质而受到限制 。 土地就是一个例子 。 原油和大多数自然资源是另一个例子 。 这类货物一次只能由一个人或一个国家拥有 。 它们不可能凭空创造出来 。

Others are by their nature not limited by any physical constraints. These types of non-finite goods and services are largely the result of people getting together and collaborating.
其他的则不受任何物理限制 。 这些类型的非有限商品和服务很大程度上是人们聚在一起和合作的结果 。
For example consider semiconductors:
例如 , 考虑半导体:

  • They are built on top of a physical resource that is widely distributed around the world and virtually unlimited: Silicon.
  • 它们是建立在一种物理资源之上的 , 这种资源广泛分布在世界各地 , 几乎是无限的:硅 。
  • Improvements in chip design increase the efficiency and output of a chip without increasing the amount of silicon required.
  • 芯片设计的改进提高了芯片的效率和输出 , 而不增加所需的硅的数量 。
  • In other words it is mostly human creativity and ingenuity supplying all of the horsepower.
  • 换句话说 , 主要是人类的创造力和独创性提供了所有的动力 。
  • And once a chip design is completed it can be copied at nearly zero marginal cost.
  • 一旦芯片设计完成 , 就可以以几乎为零的边际成本进行复制 。

The shift from finite to non-finite as illustrated by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
道琼斯工业平均指数从有限向非有限的转变
Most economic development these days comes from non-finite goods and services like technology as opposed to finite goods and services. This is very evident when you look at how the component companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average have changed over time.
如今 , 大多数经济发展来自于非有限的商品和服务 , 如技术 , 而不是有限的商品和服务 。 当你观察道琼斯工业平均指数成分股公司随时间的变化时 , 这一点就非常明显 。

As you can see when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was first formulated in 1896 all of its component companies involved some sort of limited resource whether it was land (for agricultural products) fossil fuels (for power plants) or physical commodity (rubber cows/leather). General Electric is the only company on the list which relied on a significant technology component — and probably not a coincidence why it is the only recognizable name from that initial list today.